Friday, November 07, 2003

Surprised Google & Microsoft Talked Takeover? You Shouldn't Be!: "Google used to say it was focused on search, but these days it's about 'organizing the web's information.' Email is information. And with email spam a growing problem, I could see Google seeking a spam-filtering company such as Brightmail or SpamCop (which I use and highly recommend). A plus to such a move is that this type of service would generate subscription-based revenue that Google currently lacks.
Perhaps Google might seek a company that lets people sell products online, which would then feed into an actual Google shopping or auction area...

"who's going to win" in the search race that continues to heat up. Don't expect this to be the service that uses "personalization" to prevent switching, as the article suggests. Yahoo and MSN already have personalization. That's not kept people from going to Google when they want to search.

Instead, you're not likely to see any clear winners. Why? Think television networks. In the US, there are four major networks that capture viewers. None of them are going to collapse overnight, though any one of them will gain or lose users depending on its programming.

Search is programming. As long as Google's programming stays substantially good, users are going to keep tuning in out of habit. Potentially, it is "easy" to switch from Google. But ask any smoker how easy it is to give up cigarettes.

"who's going to win" in the search race that continues to heat up. Don't expect this to be the service that uses "personalization" to prevent switching, as the article suggests. Yahoo and MSN already have personalization. That's not kept people from going to Google when they want to search.

Instead, you're not likely to see any clear winners. Why? Think television networks. In the US, there are four major networks that capture viewers. None of them are going to collapse overnight, though any one of them will gain or lose users depending on its programming.

Search is programming. As long as Google's programming stays substantially good, users are going to keep tuning in out of habit. Potentially, it is "easy" to switch from Google. But ask any smoker how easy it is to give up cigarettes.

while Google got Microsoft's pitch, there's no doubt Microsoft heard Google's. "Use us," Google would argue, "because we are far less competitive with you than Yahoo."

For the time being, both sides seem to be sticking with the status quo. But don't be surprised if we hear more about Microsoft and Google talking. It's unlikely to be about a takeover, but it certainly could be about working together."

Guardian | Google fights for top spot: "Against that, Google's search is stuck: its database is not getting bigger, and its search results are not getting better, they are getting worse. Things that were simple when Google had just a few geek users are now hard because it is under continuous attack from thousands of people who track its every move and will resort to any trick they can find to get their sites ranked higher. The technology that won the last search engine wars won't be enough to win the next one, as Google surely knows.

According to Pitkow, the one most likely to win in the long run is the one that can increase its "switching costs" by adding personalisation. At the moment, anyone can search at Google or Teoma or any other search engine, and there is no penalty to switching. That's different from, say, Amazon, where things like one-click ordering, intelligent book recommendations, wish lists and other personalisation features discourage users from defecting to rival sites, even if they are cheaper.

It's hard to switch from Yahoo if you use its personalised My Yahoo service, email, instant messaging, chat and shopping facilities. It's hard to avoid Microsoft if you use its operating system, browser and Hotmail email service. It's easy to switch from Google. Whether they know it or not, the people who plan to buy Google shares could be taking a gamble on it solving that problem, and soon"

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