Saturday, May 15, 2004

Google's IPO and SEM: Predictions

Google's IPO and SEM: Predictions:

Increased contextual inventory

Increased search inventory. Media hype over Google's IPO has increasingly more people trying Google, and even the Internet in general. The entire search engine marketing (SEM) space will see increases in search inventory as new searchers come online

Smarter searchers. Media focus on Google will result in the public learning how to search more intelligently. This may accelerate the current trend of longer search queries (searchers using more keywords in a phrase). This shift in behavior will force marketers to embrace campaign management strategies that align well with searcher behavior. Broad campaigns and broad match listings will become the norm. XML paid inclusion, the automation of ad creation from data feeds, site crawls, or programming scripts/spreadsheets,, will increase

More advertisers, consequent higher costs (CPCs). Marketers who are either sitting on the SEM sidelines or just dabbling in it will begin to understand SEM's true power. This trend is already underway as engines, agencies, search optimizers, and nonprofit organizations such as SEMPO, AIM, and the IAB educate the marketplace on search's value.

Ironically, because SEM is a zero-sum game, the return on investment (ROI) on both paid and organic search for all participants will drop as the marketplace learns more about and adapts SEM. The auction marketplaces for search clicks will become more efficient, and competition for organic search engine optimization (SEO) positions will require more work from internal IT and marketing staff, SEO agencies, and consultants."

Product enhancements

Government scrutiny on the industry.The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and other government agencies are busy fighting e-mail spam, with limited success. Although the FTC has released disclosure guidelines relating to the labeling of paid search listings, thus far the level of scrutiny has been relatively low. Google's IPO and the related media visibility, in combination with a major election year, could result in additional guidelines and event regulation. Links explaining what sponsored links are may become larger and more prominent. The resulting FAQ pages may be more standardized. If the scrutiny is high enough, regulation could even extend to organic SEO practices (though I doubt it).

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